More nature, less glass, and flavor-town. ABG predictions for the year ahead.
It’s been a quick start to 2024, so here are the top topics I think that wine professionals should be focusing on in the year ahead:
Connecting with nature
Consumers want more nature in their wine tourism. Think of wine destinations as sanctuaries, that are less about alcohol as entertainment, and more about nourishing the soul. Developers have jumped on the benefits that being outdoors has on physical and mental health and well-being, and are incorporating it into building design: wellness real estate is now worth $398 Billion and is the fastest growing segment of the wellness industry.
You don’t have to offer the Hanging Gardens of Babylon. Just a simple pond and lawn where picnic rugs are welcome will do. Consumers want spaces where gathering, conviviality and a sense of rest and reprieve from life are possible.
Flavor rules
As consumer needs evolve, wine will need more ways to deliver flavor. Whether it's lower alcohol, non-vinifera varieties, or co-ferments, the most important thing is taste.
Let's get real
Consumers, particularly younger consumers, want to know what’s in their drink, from calorie counts and serving size, to alcohol levels and ingredient labeling. Misinformation already abounds around the "dangers" of alcohol, so be as transparent as possible with sugar, calories and ingredients.
A glass reset
In response to the growing trend for moderation, requests for quarter and half-glass pours will increase. As portion sizes are reduced, wine-by-the-glass prices will stabilize. The oversized, bloated glassware of the ‘90s and ‘00s will be replaced with smaller, more utilitarian stems, with fine glassware reserved for elite events, fine dining, and technical tasting purposes.
Workplace leadership
The most successful wine companies will put employee wellbeing at the forefront. From defining clear guidelines on drinking in the workplace, to owners leading by example through their own consumption discipline, employers who prioritize emotional wellbeing for their teams will attract and retain the highest performers.
Italian entrepreneur and fashion creative Brunello Cucinelli calls investment in people “humanistic capitalism” — and has discovered that it offers a positive financial return for both his shareholders and employees.
Wine companies need these high-performing teams to weather the coming storms of category decline.
Wine and culture
Wine MUST quickly step up and connect itself at every level back to the bedrock of human culture — history, social connection, nutrition, and the Mediterranean diet — to set itself apart from other alcohol. Conviviality, sociability and the communal connection offered by wine needs to be a part of the conversation, as does the deep influence of place. Wine is in danger of being thrown in with "other alcohol" by the temperance movement, which is a very dangerous place for wine to be. It’s the beverage with the longest and deepest connection to culture, history and community at the table — let's not lose that magic.
NA must go fine
Having tasted more than 50 wine and wine-adjacent non-alcohol offerings, it’s clear there's still an enormous gap in quality and flavor. Aside from a few select sparkling and aromatic whites — the sparkling teas from Copenhagen Sparkling Tea Company are the best we tasted — the NA wine category is dire. The space is wide open for a commercial opportunity if the code for the balance of sugar, flavor and weight can be cracked.
Analog communities
As the online media machine continues to eat itself, communities formed around common truths and likeminded values will grow as a place for conversations to be had in person. Intimate conversations will be saved for offline, so bring back the talking stick and the fence post conversation of yesteryear.
Breath, meditation and movement still matter
We need rest more than ever. And teachers of the ancient practices of mediation, yoga and mindfulness will still be here after the cacophony of resets, habit hacks, and NA sugar overload is gone. Don't forget to thank a teacher, today.
As wine paddles through the waves of uncertainty generated by the anti-alcohol movement and declining market share, smart wine producers are creating communities.
Wine still has a bright outlook in 2024. It comes through accessible community spaces, populated by like-minded people, and served in modest glassware.
Here we go!
Namaste,
Beck
PS - On the topic of Dry January, I kindly ask to PLEASE stop making any 30-day "reset" a competitive sport. Alcohol and health is a VERY personal, nuanced and complex subject, and for many, resetting for 30 days is not a decision to be taken lightly, or without medical support. Respect the subject. Please.
